2 vs 1 Debate on Le Pen
Original Post
Indeed a Le Pen victory would be catastrophic for the Western alliance. Besides Trump, this is the major alliance credibility threat Europe is facing right now:
Restack
Unfortunately nobody has even the imagination to do something like getting out of NATO. Modern European politicians simply don't do these things
I'm pretty sure Brexit they thought pro EU position would have won .
O1
2 questions, just curious:
1: Where do you get the confidence that modern European politicians don’t do these things? I’ll grant leaving it is unlikely but I can imagine Le Pen severely undermining it through steps like leaving integrated military command?
2: You say unfortunately. What exactly makes you think that a reality where European politicians are willing to leave NATO is a good thing?
R1
Link to post
For point number 1 it is simply what's happening here the anti illegal immigrations with Libyan clans were done by the left wing government before the current one,and with Tunisia they already existed and they were simply expanded,other than that the Meloni government kept on expanding on visas, hasn't changed citizenship laws,sends weapons to Ukraine etc .
For point number 2 I've explained extensively why 1 I think being pro Italy in NATO is a political ideological position and not a strategic one and 2 why Italy should get out of it,and all my arguments I think apply on France even strongly being France more energy indipendent, having a vast nuclear arsenal and the like also historically got out of NATO once already. If you are interested I can gather my points
O2
From what I understood, you think Le Pen (a French Presidential candidate) won't undermine NATO because Meloni (an Italian Prime Minister) has not implemented major policy reforms on migration and has towed the line on European foreign policy. I'm sorry but this isn't exactly the sharpest analysis. I'm not an expert on any of these countries but obviously there are differences. A President has different authorities than a Prime Minister, there are different domestic political games that both are playing, obviously the conditions which Meloni arrived in are going to be different than when/if Le Pen comes to power (Trump being the biggest example)... I could go on but you get the picture, you'd have to do way more analysis to make such a claim.
I'm sorry but you aren't going to convince me that effectively blowing up the biggest Western Security alliance would make the world a better place. That claim is just so out there, like just consider the power vacuum that would be left and who'd claim it. Do we want China to handle European security bilaterally with European states? Do we want a larger chance of Russia invading the Baltic states? If you seriously think that's a good alternative to the status quo, I literally don't know how to talk to you. No serious foreign policy analyst or anyone in public office would concurr with you, I don't know why you have any confidence about this whatsoever.
Why do you even follow my posts if you're so diametrically opposed to me on such basic worldview things?
A2
He is correctly arguing that Le Pen will become a Meloni style politician and I concur. The RN is not anti-NATO and even tho France has a long history of fucking with NATO (they only rejoined central command in 2007 under Sarkozy remember) I dont think Le Pen will do or be able to undermine NATO as the French army is now increasingly dependant on European partners who will for sure not want to leave NATO.
Also Le Pen will be quite impopular and will have a big part of the “deep state“ of ENArque controlled institutions undermining her at any step. The President powers in France are overblown as you can see with Macron, who has failed to enact any true solution to France’s ills despite theoretical “large powers“.
O3
So in the article it says that she promised to pull out of integrated command. I respect your estimation that there are some factors pointing against her doing this, but even the less pessimistic expert they cited in the article said she might "drag her heels or even block decisions on things like the Nato budget or joint programmes". Also, 5 years is a long time in which any number of unpredictable opportunities might arise. I just don't share the confidence level with which you guys are saying that she'll not undermine NATO.
To make a comparison, I could see her becoming similar (probably worse) to a Nawrocki (who vetoed Poland's participation in the European SAFE joint defense procurement), which is already bad enough for European security for me.
A3
The population is not that NATO skeptic and actually seems to be ok with a higher defense budget. The issue with LePen is that she seems to be more of a lying crook than the average french politician (which is saying something btw) and will face incredible levels of people dragging their feet in her own government.
She has not a lot of political capital points and antagonizing the EU/America is gonna be too costly on top of not dealing with immigration. My opinion is that she will try to prove everything is ok on a first term and maybe do the crazier things later.
O4
I mean that’s reasonable, but to categorically rule it out seems overstated.
A4
Remember, nothing ever happens.
O5
Nothing ever happens until the UK suddenly leaves the EU, nothing ever happens until Trump ends USAID, nothing ever happens until Meloni suspends the Schengen agreement, nothing ever happens until Orbán blocks Ukraine funding.